BJP To Outwit Congress In Chess Game Of Himachal Pradesh

Prof N.K. Singh

Former Chairman International Airports Authority of India

The coming assembly election of Himachal Pradesh is not only decisive for both the parties but also shows literally the game of pawn and rook. On each seat there is a tendency to fight in shah-mat style of the chess. The election is crucial for the Congress since it has lost already enough and its rule is shrinking with only six out of 18 states which are governed by the BJP apart from virtual control of a few more states. The Congress is fast approaching Modi’s threatened vision of eliminating Congress to achieve Congress mukt bharat.

At the same time, Rahul has failed time and again to hit any success in electoral campaigning so far. This time both Himachal and Gujarat have been handled by him more aggressively with seasoned and funny jumlas such as Jawab ka sawal chahiye. It is clear that Himachal where Congress has power and it is fighting hard to retain it, matters a lot to the party. Bigger challenge is to destabilise BJP in Gujarat. Rahul is therefore in crucial personal battle not for the party only but to prove himself in the political arena. Even a farmer in the field says ab to BJP ki bari hai. There are 338 candidates in the fray for 68 seats in Himachal Pradesh. After withdrawal of candidature by many, now it is still a big chunk left. It contains a large number of rebels of both the parties besides the independents and small parties. First signs of the varied strategy was shown by parties in placement of pawns on the chess board.

It is clear that Himachal where Congress has power and it is fighting hard to retain it, matters a lot to the party. Bigger challenge is to destabilise BJP in Gujarat. Rahul is therefore in crucial personal battle not for the party only but to prove himself in the political arena

The BJP placed all the 68 on the board but Congress vacillated and finally placed 59 on the board. Nine more were kept in suspense; It was a bad move and smacked of something shady. It turned out to be shady as it concealed most of the dynasty candidates who were not included in first list. This considered master stroke was worst tactic of Congress strategy as finally their favourites dynasty candidates were revealed with sons and daughters of the top leaders. Their sham matching with BJP, who did not have any dynasty candidate in its list, proved a lame duck. Electorates do not appreciate this hide and seek with shady intentions. If they had to declare dynasty candidates and they had done well to deserve the ticket party should note have shied away initially only later to spill the beans.

Second major damage to the Congress was done by its law and order handling in the case of Kotkhai rape and murder case and murder of a forest guard. Public outcry in the entire state revealed poor police administration when the same DIG who was inquiring the case was arrested by the CBI. It did not paint state’s good governance. Third strategic failure of the Congress was its organisational failure as its PCC and different organs did not perform effectively with blocks bing a total failure. There was open quarrel between the CM and state party president that did not do well for the Congress. Such quarrels were rampant in lower echelons of the party.

Lastly as if all this was not enough, the Congress scored self goal in handling its senior 90 years old leader, who had done tremendous service to the party, by disregarding her wish to gracefully retire. While Chief Minister had agreed to fight from her seat which she was to vacate, he changed his mind last minute to contest from a more safe Arki seat. This move upset the great old lady and she threw all tantrums that gained headlines in news papers. Public and even Congress men started street talk that how party disgraces its senior people who have served it long.     On the other hand, the fight between Shanta Kumar and P.K. Dhumal was contained in the four walls of the party and it did not damage the party. Centre of the party, with Health Minister J.P. Nadda playing a mediating role, helped in dousing party fires. Their rebels are many but they would not be effective without the worker base of the party. The party also kept its word of not fielding dynasty candidates when the Congress failed, proving the charge of parivarvad ki party by the BJP.

It is somehow axiomatic that the seesaw win has become the brand of Himachal politics in two party system. Since 1985, both the parties have captured party on alternative terms. In chess it was master stroke to bring new faces and use the bigger power to block a winnable candidate of the opposite party. Look at the example of Dhumal moving to Sujanpur. He would be able to stop re-entry of Rajinder Rana as this time BJP’s Narinder Thakur would have caught a tar tar in him. He was moved to Hamirpur where he faced a relatively less challenging situation whereas Dhumal himself was to face Rana. Such deft moves have made the strategy of BJP far better than the Congress ensuring maximizing seats. Now Dhumal has been declared BJP’s chief ministerial candidate in Himachal. Taking into account all the factors it would not be a surprise if BJP gets around 39 seats with plus and minus of five and Congress around 24. Others will have space of about five seats. There seems to be no doubt that this chess game tilted in favour of the BJP on account of its better moves.

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