China Sowing Seeds Of Third World War?
Prof N.K. Singh
Former Chairman International Airports Authority of India
Latest development of China moving its artillery and heavy machines to the Tibet border has added serious dimension to the Indo-China conflict. Developments in the global arena are not very conducive to the world peace. Centre of this unrest stems from China which has dispute with all neighbours on some kind of border problem unless it has compromised with China on its terms. Pakistan has virtually gifted off one third of Kashmir to it and China is trying to gain access to Indian Ocean through new port being constructed in Baluchistan. In South China Sea, it is challenging the world powers including Japan, US and South Korea.
Bhutan, a small country which has been almost for a decade in the protection of India, is feeling insecure due to Chinese road is being built in the disputed territory between both countries. There have been many meetings of both Bhutan and China but nothing could be agreed upon. And it was maintained by both that there would not be any change in the status quo. This has been violated by China due to this standoff and economic activity on disputed land. India is also concerned about it as such a road will pose security risk to it also.
* China has also given veiled threat on withdrawing FDI from India which need not worry it is not much from China, with Japan being on the top with 25% FDI. What is urgent for India is to launch massive production of ordinary goods like lighters, knickknacks kitchen equipment and other goods.
Favourable attitude to China has steeply declined in Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. Some people argue that India is in trouble in economy so China wants to make full use of it by siphoning off its fringes. This view is mistaken as China knows Indian strength, Arun Jaitley rightly remarked that China should not think India is in 1962 as there is sea change in the situation then and now.
China will face more problems in the coming years due to its changing economic scenario where it will face less growth and joblessness. It is also paying through nose for environmental disaster unleashed by SEZs. These special industrial zones constructed for rapid export performance have violated environmental protection throwing it to dogs. Its practice of dumping has given it an edge on faster economic growth but it would face resistance from countries that are struggling to compete with it. Economic stagnation is bound to hit China in coming ten years whereas India is likely to continue to be fastest growing country.
There is thinking of many experts that India instead of military response should think of economic blockade. It may not be feasible as in continuous developments of country India needs technology and products. China is a major exporter with more than 60% imports which rose from 43% ten years back. Trade deficit is high as India exports around 10% of total export that declined over years. Such trade imbalance it not very conducive to healthy development in trade. But those who want ban on Chinese goods must realize our realism. Many countries like South Korea, Japan, Norway and US have placed import curbs on Chinese goods.
China has also given veiled threat on withdrawing FDI from India which need not worry it is not much from China, with Japan being on the top with 25% FDI. What is urgent for India is to launch massive production of ordinary goods like lighters, knickknacks kitchen equipment and other goods. This will create employment and reduce dispensable trade with China. But at the moment, blockade is not desirable. The question arises how with the belligerency and border disputes China can win any situation without allies. Whole world is almost on one side after Modi’s assiduous diplomacy. Only Pakistan and North Korea stand by China. Russia might join them but at the moment she seems to be balancing between pro-China stance and pro-India stance. Here no one knows the veracity of Mulayam Singh’s statement that China is greater danger than Pakistan as it is placing nuclear weapons against India in Pakistan. No one knows if it is portent of world war. But I believe while nuclear weapon is dangerous to cause disasters but it also is a natural deterrent to warmongering since others too have the same.
Except North Korea, no other nation will easily resort to trigger happy attitude in the present situation. China might realise its futile belligerency, especially if it is tamed by US and Japan. This to some extent is subtle message of recent joint exercise of India Japan and US in South China sea. And even if seeds of war seem to be in the ploughed fields, we might take respite in wise restraint that all will exercise.
Bus Stand
First Passenger: “When all parties are protesting for justice in Kotkhai rape case? Why the Congress is only observing maun”?
Second Passenger: “Some wags think Manmohan Singh might have advised them”.
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